The cardboard and recovered paper market has been experiencing significant shifts over the past few years, driven by changing economic conditions and new manufacturing capacity. For small business owners who rely on cardboard packaging or recycling, staying updated on these trends is crucial.

Despite various fluctuations, the demand for recovered paper, including old corrugated containers (OCC) and mixed paper, remains strong and is expected to continue growing. This is due in part to new paper mills coming online that are able to process higher volumes of these materials.

In the first half of 2024, U.S. paper mills increased their consumption of recovered paper by 6.8%, taking in more than 16 million tons, with a notable 8.2% rise in the demand for OCC. This increased demand has stabilized the market somewhat after a decline in 2022, particularly as mills have been able to absorb more recycled fiber.

The North American OCC market, however, is still closely tied to global trends, especially in Asia. A slowdown in China’s economy has reduced demand for U.S. OCC exports, particularly to Asia, but North American demand is balancing that out. In fact, new recycled paper capacity in North America is a key driver behind the stronger OCC market.

Looking ahead, as more mills expand their capacity, the demand for recovered paper, especially OCC and mixed paper, will likely grow further. This means small businesses that use or recycle cardboard should expect the need for recycled materials to increase.

One important trend to note is that the U.S. is exporting less OCC due to rising domestic demand, with exports dropping by 11% in the first half of 2024. For small businesses, this suggests that cardboard may become more valuable locally as supply tightens.

Finally, advancements in sorting technology and the increasing use of mixed paper by North American mills could further shift the market. While mixed paper has historically been less in demand, it is becoming a more critical component in cardboard production. This dynamic is pushing both suppliers and producers to adapt to these evolving market conditions.

For small business owners, keeping an eye on these trends can help inform decisions about packaging materials, recycling practices, and supply chain strategies.